Weekly Research Report: BIDDING, BIDDING, BIDDING

Crypto market remained steady at $1.1T market cap level with boring price actions over the weekend. Bitcoin chopped between $22.3k and $23.4k and ended above the 200-weekly ma ($22.9k) (7d: BTC -0.9%). The higher-than-expected nonfarm payroll result on Friday hinted a possibly hawkish Fed action in September, $ETH reacted with a 2% drop in the next hour but fully recovered during the weekend. CPI on Wednesday will be the centre of discussion.

Stablecoin dominance went lower this week (USDT 6.1%, USDC 5.0%).

General perpetual funding rates turned south (annualized 7d funding: BTC -3.6%; ETH -3.4%).

Alts’ funding rates remained negative (SOL -6.9%, ADA -4.2%).

For liquidation, the activities were quiet as crypto assets hovering around narrow ranges. Volatility is expected to rise as CPI approaches.

Chart 1: 7dma of BTC, ETH Perpetual Futures Funding Rate (Source: FTX)
Chart 2: 4hr BTC liquidation chart (Source: Coinglass)
Major Crypto KPI (Aug 08, 2022)

Ethereum Merge last testnet, ‘Goerli’, is happening and its ‘total terminal difficulty of 10790000’ is forecasted to be on 10 Aug. Justin Sun supported Ethereum Hard Fork development to keep the income stream for Ethereum miners. His exchange, Poloniex Exchange, will list two potential forked ETH tokens, $ETHS and $ETHW. Ethereum currently trades above the 100dma ($1650), continuing its strong rally since the Merge date being finalized ($ETH +0.2%)

Cardano, the eighth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, had a steady uptrend as community awaited for the upgrade. On-chain data showed the number of Cardano wallets was growing (over $3.5m), with $99m TVL ($ADA +0.0%).

Non-EVM Layer-1 blockchain tokens always benefited from the Ethereum Merge, $BNB +12.8% and $AVAX +17.7%.

Nomad Bridge was exploited for $190m last week and some ethical hackers started to return funds after Nomad announced a 10% bounty reward.

Slope, the Solana wallet, got hacked and over $4m drained. The team has offered 10% bounty for hackers to return stolen funds and advised users to create new wallet.

Voyager will be enabling cash withdrawals for customers on 11 Aug after suspending trading activities and transfers since July.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, published an article, ‘MAXBIDDING’, which expressed his super-bullish view on Ethereum according to no-matter-what moves the Fed is going to take next.

Beanstalk’s algo stablecoin protocol, hacked in early April, relaunched on Saturday.

The European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA) implemented stricter scrutiny on crypto transactions and trading activities including spot and derivatives, indicating a public tender.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) may regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities per New Senate Bill.

The US SEC charged eleven individuals who created and promoted Forsage, a fraudulent crypto ponzi scheme that raised over $300m from worldwide investors.

Starbucks unveiled Web3 reward program to attract new customers. The reward program will be featured with a spend-to-earn ecosystem.

BlackRock partnered with Coinbase to offer crypto trading service for its Aladdin’s clients.

Tinder swiped left for (rejected) the metaverse development but also mentioned the potentials for metaverse dating experience.

Michael Saylor stepped down as MicroStrategy CEO while remaining as executive chair in order to focus on the ‘Bitcoin Acquisition Strategy’.

The Nonfarm Payrolls number on Friday was 528k, two times more than the expected 250k, implying a possibility that the Fed will continue its hawkish rate hike actions in September. Despite the interest rate uncertainty ahead of, equities were generally up (DJIA +0.9%; S&P500 +1.4%; NQ +2.4%), Coinbase Global releasing earning reports on 9 Aug. Commodities traded generally lower (Gold +0.5%; Oil -5.3%; Wheat +3.6%). July CPI number (10 Aug) continued to be the focus, a number lower than 9.1% will imply the hyperinflation has reached the top and bullish for the market.

Crypto industry kept growing under hyperinflation, institutions continued to step into the crypto space, either launching their Web3 products or offering crypto-related services to their clients. SR hereby continued to buy the dips.

Good Luck!

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